Seven OPEC+ producers hold November output steady at 31.01 million barrels a day
Seven OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed on 4 October to leave their required crude production for November unchanged at September's levels, extending a pause that began with October's quotas. In a statement published the same day, OPEC said the group, which also includes Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, had met virtually to review global market conditions and the outlook, and "decided to maintain September 2026 required production for November 2026".
The combined November target for the seven countries is 31.01 million barrels a day, according to Nairametrics, which published the country breakdown: Saudi Arabia at 10.478 million barrels a day, Russia at 9.949 million, Iraq at 4.431 million, Kuwait at 2.676 million, Kazakhstan at 1.628 million, Algeria at 1.007 million and Oman at 841,000. These are the same seven producers that announced additional voluntary cuts in April and November 2023 and have been unwinding them since.
The pause follows four consecutive monthly increases from June through September that restored a cumulative 752,000 barrels a day of the earlier voluntary cuts, the last of them a 188,000 barrel-a-day step for September approved in early August. The group first held quotas flat for October at its 6 September meeting, saying it wanted more time to assess the supply already returned to the market before considering further increases.
Headline quotas and physical barrels have diverged. Energy consultancy Enerdata noted that conflict in the Middle East has prevented much of the planned 2026 increase from materialising, with disruptions to exports through the Strait of Hormuz and constraints on Russian flows keeping actual output below target. Nairametrics added that some members lack the capacity to lift production while others are obliged to compensate for past overproduction, so each headline increase has translated into a smaller real addition.
The decision sits alongside a sharply different picture outside the Gulf. The World Trade Organization reported on 8 October that Middle Eastern crude exports fell about 24% year on year in the first half of 2026, while shipments from other suppliers limited the decline in global crude exports to roughly 6%. The International Monetary Fund, in its 13 October outlook, said economies have drawn down oil reserves and redirected supplies but warned that those options are finite.
The seven producers reiterated what the statement called their "collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation", the framework agreement that binds the wider OPEC+ alliance. The statement offered no assessment of prices or demand, and gave no reasons beyond the review of market conditions. The group said it would continue to hold monthly meetings.
For importers, the significance of a flat quota depends less on the number itself than on whether exports through Hormuz recover. The IMF's regional forecast, which has the Middle East and Central Asia contracting 0.3% this year before growing 6.3% in 2027, is explicitly conditional on shipping routes normalising, a point that applies with equal force to the OPEC+ production schedule.
What to watch next: the seven countries are due to meet again on 1 November to set December quotas. Between now and then, monthly production surveys will show the gap between the 31.01 million barrel target and delivered supply, and the IMF's Annual Meetings this week may add detail on the Fund's energy-price assumptions.
