JPMorgan's $15.3bn quarter opens an earnings season forecast to grow 24%
JPMorgan Chase reported third-quarter net income of $15.3 billion on 13 October, up about 6% from $14.4 billion a year earlier, on revenue of $50.2 billion that rose 8%, according to the bank's results as reported by Quiver Quantitative and WealthBriefing. Earnings came to $5.57 per diluted share, below the roughly $5.86 consensus compiled by Hudson Labs in late September, after $658 million of net losses on investment securities in the corporate segment trimmed per-share earnings by $0.18.
The underlying mix was mostly stronger. Provisions for credit losses fell 19% to $2.74 billion, while asset and wealth management posted net income of $1.84 billion, up 11%, on revenue growth of 14%. Assets under management reached $5.2 trillion, up 13%, and total client assets climbed 15% to $7.9 trillion, which the bank attributed to continued net inflows and higher market levels. The common equity tier 1 ratio stood at 13.9% at the end of September.
Costs rose faster than the top line. Non-interest expense increased 12% to $27.3 billion, continuing a trend flagged earlier in the year when management raised its 2026 adjusted expense guidance to about $107.5 billion from $105 billion, according to HeyGoTrade's preview. The corporate segment swung to a $455 million net loss from an $825 million profit a year earlier, largely because of the securities write-downs.
JPMorgan's numbers set the tone for a crowded week. Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo also reported on 13 October, with State Street following on 14 October and BNY on 15 October, and 29 S&P 500 constituents in total were scheduled, including Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth and Taiwan Semiconductor, according to Zacks commentary published on Finviz. JPMorgan shares closed at $334.30 on 12 October, giving the bank a market value of about $889 billion.
Expectations for the season as a whole are unusually high. Zacks estimates that S&P 500 earnings will rise 24.3% from a year earlier in the third quarter, which would be the eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Strip out energy, where profits are forecast to more than double on the oil price surge, and growth falls to 20.1%; exclude technology and it drops to 14.2%, underlining how concentrated the gains remain.
Of the 16 Zacks sectors, 15 are expected to show higher earnings, with aerospace up 159.5%, energy 117.1%, technology 43.3% and basic materials 29.7%. Only conglomerates are seen declining, by 35.1%. Financials are a comparatively modest contributor, with sector earnings forecast up 3.3% on revenue growth of 6.3%; banks and brokerages are seen posting 2.5% earnings growth on 9.7% higher revenue.
Early results have run ahead of forecasts. The 19 S&P 500 companies that had already reported, a group that includes PepsiCo, Micron and Nike, showed aggregate earnings up 150.9%, or 9.4% excluding Micron, with 78.9% beating consensus, Zacks said. Estimates for the fourth quarter are rising in seven sectors, including technology, finance and energy, and falling in eight, among them retail, autos and consumer staples. US index futures were little changed ahead of the bank reports, with S&P 500 futures near 7,840.
The pace accelerates from here. The remaining large banks and payment companies report through the week, big technology names begin in the final week of October, and the September consumer price index on 14 October together with the Federal Reserve's 27–28 October meeting will shape how the market values whatever growth companies deliver.
