Brent holds above $100 as Hormuz tanker attacks offset G7's 100m-barrel release
Brent crude has spent most of October above $100 a barrel, swinging between roughly $98 and $105 as traders weighed a coordinated release of emergency stocks by the Group of Seven against a fresh wave of attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The benchmark closed at $102.31 on 1 October, up $4.28 on the day, according to 24/7 Wall St, slipped to $98.48 by the morning of 6 October, Reuters reported via BOE Report, and then jumped almost 5% to $105.02 on 8 October, according to Oilprice.com.
The supply backdrop is unusually fluid. Flows through Hormuz had recovered materially through September, with Middle Eastern crude exports above pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the month's final week and Gulf exporters above those levels for about half of September, according to shipping data cited by Reuters. Yet Kpler figures showed tanker traffic on 6 October at its lowest since late July, and a US Navy-led maritime information outlet logged a dozen attacks on vessels between 28 September and 2 October.
Governments have tried to lean against the price. G7 countries agreed in early October to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves and pledged not to impose export restrictions, a decision Tim Waterer of KCM Trade said was "taking some of the immediate supply anxiety out of the price". The International Energy Agency said it would soon decide how to distribute the volumes. Some observers noted the tranche forms part of a plan from March to release about 400 million barrels, limiting its surprise value.
Analysts have nonetheless moved their forecasts higher. UBS raised its fourth-quarter Brent view to $100 a barrel from about $80, and its 2026 average to $91.57 from $83.74, in a note dated 5 October. The bank assumes a gradual normalisation of regional flows through the first half of 2027 under an arrangement similar to the US–Iran memorandum of understanding that broke down after June, but warned that new attacks could push prices to $120 or higher, while a fresh agreement could bring them down faster.
The geopolitical track remains unresolved. A Wall Street Journal report cited by 24/7 Wall St said a third US aircraft carrier had departed San Diego for the region and that 9,000 to 10,000 additional troops were due by the end of November, though the deployment was not officially confirmed. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said an Iranian delegation that left talks had "overstayed their welcome", and President Donald Trump called Tehran's latest offer "not good enough".
The strain is visible downstream. US retail diesel averaged $6.39 a gallon on 1 October, according to AAA figures reported by 24/7 Wall St, just below the record $6.53 set on 22 September, while regular gasoline stood at $4.41. Daniel Hynes of ANZ observed that past attacks have reduced shipments from the Persian Gulf, but that producers "appear to be willing to take the risk of their vessels being damaged" to keep exports moving.
The macro consequences are already in official forecasts. The IMF's October World Economic Outlook lifted its global inflation projection for 2026 to 4.7% and projected a 0.3% contraction for the Middle East and Central Asia region this year, with any 2027 rebound conditional on Hormuz reopening fully. ING expects Brent to remain above $100 while tensions persist.
Near-term markers include the IEA's decision on the mechanics of the stock release, the next Hormuz transit data from Kpler and other trackers, OPEC's monthly oil market report, and US weekly inventory figures, which will also reflect Gulf Coast production shut-ins ahead of a storm that operators began preparing for in the second week of October.
